A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
